Raja Petra Kamarudin | MalaysiaToday - NO HOLDS BARRED | Monday, 06 April 2009
For the Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu by-elections, I gave my forecast even before Nomination Day. This time around I did not give any forecast for the three by-elections mainly because I am not on the ground and I have to depend on the Barisan Rakyat Bloggers for feedback. Furthermore, because I had given a forecast twice before, many placed bets on the outcome and, may I add, won the bet.
Today, with just a day to go, I am going to just give you my wish list. No, this is not my forecast. This is what I hope will happen. And if it does not happen with a majority that I hope for, then I would regard it as a failure. A Pakatan Rakyat win is not good enough. It must be an impressive win to send a message to Barisan Nasional that the 8 March 2008 Tsunami is still very much alive.
Batang Ai has 8,000 registered voters, about 95% Ibans. The two contenders are five-term Lubok Antu MP Jawah Gerang and newcomer Malcom Mussem Lamoh from Barisan Nasional. The feedback I get is that there is heavy internal sabotage, which may thwart the opposition’s chances of winning this seat.
Nevertheless, the opposition campaign team, in particular the Sarawak Bloggers, are working extremely hard on the ground. So Pakatan Rakyat still has a chance of winning this seat. But it will be a photo finish either way. Even if Pakatan Rakyat sweeps this seat with a majority of 500 votes I will be very happy and in a celebrative mood.
In 2004, Bukit Gantang, which has about 55,000 voters, was won by Barisan Nasional with a majority of 8,888 votes and, in 2008, Pakatan Rakyat, with a majority of 1,566 votes. That is a swing of about 10,000 votes. Pakatan Rakyat must win it this time with a majority of 2,500 to 3,000 votes to really make Najib eat humble pie.
The police have visited the gangsters in Bukit Gantang and told them to make sure that Barisan Nasional wins this seat. If Barisan Nasional loses, then the police will launch an operasi and crackdown on the Bukit Gantang underworld. This means two things. First, the police are more gangsters than the gangsters. Second, the police make deals with gangsters. Now, are we surprised by that?
Anyway, the gangsters have told them to go to hell. They are not going to allow themselves to be used by the police or Barisan Nasional as bouncers to threaten the Bukit Gantang voters to vote for Barisan Nasional. Hey, even gangsters have principles and code of ethics. And that is more than what I can say for the Malaysian police who are even less principled than the gangsters.
Bukit Selambau has about 35,000 voters. In 2004, Barisan Nasional won this seat with a majority of 7,695 votes and, in 2008, Pakatan Rakyat, with a majority of 2,362 votes. That is a swing of about 10,000 votes just like in Bukit Gantang. Again, to make Najib eat humble pie, Pakatan Rakyat must win this seat with a majority of 2,500 to 3,000 votes.
Well, that is my wish list for tomorrow. Is that your wish list too?